Don't call it a forecast... more like a vibecast.
It's the time of year that, knowing full well it is meaningless, I simply can't resist peering into the future to try to get a read on the upcoming spring severe weather season in the Central U.S. and what storm chasing prospects may look like.
The good news: To reiterate, this means nothing on January 8th
The bad news: The look ain't great
Any seasoned storm chaser will tell you it's the individual storms you'll witness each year that make up the season, not the total number of tornadoes across the U.S. or the background state of a given season. Plenty of storm chasers have treasured storm seasons that were duds relatively speaking across Tornado Alley, and there are many storm chasers who had a really bad time during the historic 2024 tornado season.
All that being said, it's still a little more cozy on a cold January morning to be looking out at an obviously stormy spring.
I meant what I said at the top - there's barely any skill in a forecast covering the 3-6 month time frame, but there are some signals we can pick out and extrapolate. I'm not going to get deep into the teleconnections at play here because again, I'm just looking at the bigger picture here and trying to see what jumps out. Does it look stormy or not?
We're transitioning from a weak La Niña toward ENSO neutral present day into the springtime. Looking back at similar transition years it's tough to come away with any banner years for storm chasing in Tornado Alley. The resulting jet stream pattern typically reflects weak, split jet stream flow coming in from the Pacific Ocean and a relative lack of deep lows ejecting into the Plains. Last year's historic tornado season was a product of an amped up sub-tropical jet stream screaming in from the Pacific Ocean, fueled by a weak to moderate El Niño event - many deep lows ejecting into the Plains.
Looking at the latest seasonal forecast data from the EPS, the ECMWF Weeklies, and the NMME a couple things jump out at me.
First, I wouldn't be surprised if the 2025 severe weather season gets off to an early, fast start. There's fairly universal support across the latest guidance that we'll fall into a pattern with a deepening area of upper-level low pressure over the Pacific Northwest/western Canada with higher atmospheric pressure over the Eastern U.S. and North Atlantic. The resulting trough west-ridge east pattern should allow for a period of enhanced southwest flow in the jet stream and an active storm track from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and Northeast U.S.
This pattern has been associated with active periods of severe storms across the Southern U.S. - anywhere from Oklahoma and Texas into the Lower Mississippi valley and Ohio Valley. Simultaneously, it could be quite snowy across portions of the Great Lakes into the Northeast.
My way-too-early outlook for February-March-early April:
While I'm going to remind us for a third time that none of this really matters, I might suggest biting on those early season severe weather opportunities a little harder in 2025 than I might otherwise, because...
...the early look for late April-May-June suggests an elevated risk for expanding drought from the Southwest U.S. to encroach on the Southern and Central Plains.
As early as April, some of the seasonal guidance is showing the dreaded Great Lakes trough with higher atmospheric pressure over the Western U.S.
This pattern is quite good at muting Central U.S. severe weather potential as cold fronts sweep from Canada into the Midwest bringing shots of cool, dry air that scour moisture with crashing cold fronts across the Plains and Midwest. These lows can then get wrapped up into the bigger Great Lakes circulation and become cut-off lows that bring cool, gloomy weather to the Midwest and block storm systems from ejecting from the Rockies into the Plains.
Severe weather season is quiet, it's cloudy and gloomy in the Midwest, and it's hot and dry in the Plains.
Is that what's going to happen? Who's to say?
Is that what a lot of guidance points to right now? Unfortunately!
So my way-too-early 2025 storm chasing vibe check? Chase those early setups, bite on some southern and/or eastern geographies that you might not otherwise in February-April, because I worry those who wait for traditional peak season in May-June might be toast.