Sunday Severe Storms | Two Corridors, Where to Target?

I was out providing live coverage from my car during the late night tornado outbreak across the Midwest on Friday, March 14th, but that didn't really feel like a true storm observation or a proper first storm chase of the season. Storms were cloaked in rain as they made their way into central Illinois so there was nothing to see but wind and rain in my headlights as the sirens howled and tornadoes skipped up and down through the area. I've got the camera gear organized and ready to go next to my desk and fully intend on observing my first daytime severe storms of 2025 tomorrow. It's not often my confidence in where I'll end up is so low before I head to bed.

Two distinct corridors of severe weather potential stand out to me as multiple shortwaves rotate through the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys on Sunday.

A lead impulse will swing through Missouri and into western Illinois late morning into early afternoon. This compact little wave could ignite a cluster of severe thunderstorms near the Missouri/Illinois border, perhaps in the St. Louis vicinity shortly after Noon. I don't have great confidence yet how unstable the environment will be downstream across the I-72 and I-70 corridors in central Illinois but deep moisture is already in place. A somewhat pristine warm sector that's allowed some sunshine could turn rather volatile by the early afternoon. I could see an eventual QLCS or broken line of severe storms and embedded supercells producing 65-80 mph wind gusts and a few tornadoes as it quickly races northeast across Illinois and into Indiana before running out of steam in Ohio late Sunday evening.

A second corridor of severe weather potential emerges across portions of southeast Missouri, Arkansas, and western Kentucky and Tennessee on Sunday evening. I've got lower confidence in how this area will evolve, but it's got a higher ceiling for a significant tornado or two from a classic supercell. Big hail and high winds could accompany any supercells in this southern zone, of course. There's also a world where the lead impulse to the north is the main event and the eventual development of a significant MCS to the north veers surface flow and/or sends an outflow boundary southward muting this southern zone and lowering the ceiling to outflow dominant storms at dusk.

Where does one target when starting out in Champaign-Urbana, IL? Neither target is all that hard to get to - the northern zone clobbers me at home with significant wind damage potential and perhaps a peek at a tornado while also playing local meteorologist and providing broadcast coverage over the airwaves as storms move through, potentially covering any damage that's left in the wake. That's a heck of a storm observation day, and is my preference if there's even a little bit of doubt about how the southern zone evolves.

If there's higher confidence in a visible tornado or two within the good terrain sandwiched between the trees and the river in the Missouri bootheel or northeast Arkansas, that's the clear chase-of-the-day and is only a 4-5 hour drive from home. Heading down there and missing significant, damaging severe weather in my backyard and then being faced with a late night, rainy drive home would be a bummer though. Wednesday already looks like a big problem next week. The season is young, there's no need to get silly.

Still, I'm a middle aged dinosaur storm chaser who somehow still hasn't seen a tornado in March. Eventually, that's gotta give.

More clarity and confidence in the morning with coffee, hopefully!