We'll see an overlapping risk for severe weather and flash flooding across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Gulf Coast this weekend, February 15-16, 2025.
The risk for flooding rains begins first as deep Gulf Moisture driven northward by a broad, strong low-level jet runs over the top of a stationary frontal boundary draped across the Mid-South and Ohio River Valley. A widespread area of rain and thunderstorms, with pockets of torrential rainfall should develop Friday night with repeated rounds of heavy rain over the same areas through the day on Saturday into Saturday night. Rainfall totals of 2-4"+ with locally higher amounts are possible from northeast Arkansas and southeast Missouri into portions of far southern Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, and far southern Indiana, Ohio, and western west Virginia.
This is a rather textbook setup for widespread heavy rainfall, and I wouldn't be shocked to see some areas flirting with 6" rainfall totals by the end of the weekend, especially from northern Tennessee into Kentucky.
Late in the day Saturday, look for a squall line to begin to organize across the Lower Mississippi Valley. Storms may initially become severe from eastern Texas into central Arkansas on Saturday afternoon, but I expect a fairly substantial squall line to emerge between 6 PM - 9 PM extending from northern Arkansas to southern Louisiana. The squall line will have the potential to produce widespread damaging winds over 60 mph, with pockets of 75 mph winds and embedded tornadic circulations as it sweeps out of Louisiana and Arkansas and through portions of southeast Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Alabama Saturday night into Sunday morning.
It's the combination of a frontal boundary, low-level jet, and mid-level jet stream that are all oriented roughly southwest to northeast and a loud signal from the CAMs (convection allowing models) that makes me think we're looking at a squall line vs a discrete storm mode on Saturday night. Big, loopy hodographs driven by that broad, strong low-level jet will fuel at least some tornado risk embedded within the line, if not a risk for a couple of stronger tornadoes.
Making this event particularly dangerous for storm chasers and residents alike is the fact storm organization and intensity probably peaks during the after-dark, overnight period from 6 PM to 6 AM, Sat PM - Sun AM.
A few daytime storms are possible on Saturday afternoon from east Texas into southern Arkansas, but I think the primary squall line with widespread wind damage and embedded tornadoes holds off until after dark. You don't need me to tell you why a nighttime risk for widespread wind damage and a few tornadoes is dangerous, both for folks in their cars with cameras looking for trouble and those just trying to sleep off a long week at home in their beds.
That being said, I do think there's some risk for a daytime, viewable supercell across chaseable portions of the Delta on Saturday afternoon and evening. From a storm observation standpoint, my best right now is probably the Pine Bluff, Arkansas area. Hope for a discrete supercell, but be content with a linear storm mode with some embedded, kinky couplets. Remember, even if storm modes trend linear and things are more difficult from a storm chasing standpoint, the potential for strong tornadoes is there, so don't get to cute with rainy intercepts.
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