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Severe Storms Return to the Central Plains



An upper-level low that spent much of the weekend vacationing over the Four Corners region will get the work week started by ejecting over the Central Plains and triggering a few strong storms on Monday afternoon and evening.


Steep lapse rates and 500 mb height falls accompanying the ejecting storm system will support a few robust updrafts and intense severe thunderstorms capable of producing hail over 1 inch in diameter, damaging 60 mph wind gusts, and a tornado or two - including the potential for a couple of supercell thunderstorms.


Shower and thunderstorm coverage will probably be most widespread closer to the surface low near the Nebraska and Kansas border, but I would not be surprised to see the more intense, likely more isolated thunderstorm activity erupt further south over northern and central Kansas, with a strong storm or two possible into the Texas Panhandle.


I do not anticipate this being a higher end severe weather event, but the presence of a compact little system in a lower relative humidity air mass always gets me thinking crisp convection, with the potential for clean thunderstorm updrafts and the chance that IF a tornado develops, it could be photogenic.


From a storm observation perspective, your odds of a memorable chase are low today, but the potential reward is rather high if you're in the right spot at the right time.




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