Long-range guidance has hinted at a gradual transition toward a North American jet stream pattern that favors an active storm track running from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley with an increase in high-impact weather across this zone in late January and February. I wrote about this idea here on January 8th.
While a broad area of high pressure remains in control across western North America, a deep upper-level low will tumble from the Desert Southwest into the Southern Plains over the next 48 hours. A strengthening low-level jet will transport deep moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico, with warm-air advection driven thunderstorms initially developing along the nose of this moisture return in the Red River region of southern Oklahoma and north Texas Wednesday afternoon and evening. Atop a strong near-surface temperature inversion these thunderstorms will be elevated in nature and may pose a risk of severe hail over 1" in diameter.
Wednesday night into Thursday, a broken line of thunderstorms should develop from the Red River southward across Texas. This line of storms is likely to move east across Texas into portions of Arkansas and Louisiana on Thursday afternoon with a continued risk for 1"+ hail and scattered wind gusts over 60 mph. Tornadoes aren't likely to be a primary concern at the moment, but one or two can't be ruled out with any supercells embedded within the linear storm complex. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts approaching 3" possible across northeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and western Louisiana.
For storm chasers in the area, while I don't expect an abundance of photogenic storm structure on Wed-Thu, this setup offers the good old excuse to get out and hear some thunder or find some pockets of hail and high winds after couple weeks of frigid winter weather.
