Two separate waves of organized severe thunderstorms posing a risk of damaging wind gusts and a few strong tornadoes are expected across portions of the south-central U.S. from mid-day Sunday into early Tuesday morning.
Round 1 should begin to erupt early to mid afternoon on Sunday (Nov 3) and peak in the Red River region of southern Oklahoma and north Texas Sunday evening into Sunday night. A cluster of supercells is possible initially, before storms enter a messier, clustered phase. Even during this messier phase after dark, a few distinct supercells are possible with an enhanced risk of damaging wind gusts and isolated tornadoes.
A more significant, widespread risk for severe weather exists on Monday. Again, look for storms to initiate across the Red River region in Oklahoma and Texas before quickly expanding northward into southern Kansas. An extensive squall line is likely to track from eastern portions of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas into Missouri and Arkansas from Monday afternoon into Monday night. Several intense QLCS segments are possible with significant wind damage and a damaging tornado or two possible. Additionally, a supercell or two is possible in the open warm sector ahead of the squall line southern Missouri or northern Arkansas with an attendant significant tornado risk.
The next 48 hours will pose a challenge for meteorologists, storm chasers, and residents alike across the south-central U.S.
Dangerous tornadoes may be difficult for meteorologists to detect on radar embedded within messy and/or linear storm modes, and may cloak themselves in darkness, heavy precipitation, or difficult terrain eluding storm chasers. For residents, an exhausting 36 hours awaits with multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms threatening the Red River and Ozarks, perhaps lasting well into Sunday and Monday nights.
Sunday's Severe Weather Outlook (Storm Prediction Center):
Summary: Thunderstorms are forming in western Texas along a surface boundary, with broken clouds and high dewpoints. As an upper trough moves into New Mexico, the severe risk will increase. There is a remnant outflow boundary from storms overnight extending from north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Storms to the west are expected to interact with this boundary, leading to an enhanced risk of damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. A small area has been upgraded to an enhanced risk level. Recent model solutions suggest storms may maintain severe intensity into southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas late tonight, with a continued risk of damaging wind gusts.
Monday's Severe Weather Outlook (Storm Prediction Center):
Summary: A weather system is moving through the southern Plains on Monday, bringing a surface low and dryline with it. This will create conditions favorable for severe storms with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage. The potential for strong tornadoes is highest in eastern Oklahoma and northeast Texas. The storms are expected to intensify in the afternoon and evening, with the potential for tornadoes and wind damage increasing. The system will move eastward during the evening, bringing a line of severe storms with it.