I'm growing very concerned about the widespread potential for dust storms and critical fire weather conditions across the Central U.S. next week.
It was a rainy spring and summer which led to lush vegetation from the Plains into the Midwest. This has been followed up by an extremely dry fall, with many locations chasing their driest Octobers on record. We're coming to the end of fall harvest in the ag belt which means we've got some remaining dry crispy crops, with increasing coverage of bare, harvested fields.
The dry, high pressure dominated pattern will be disrupted by several deep western U.S. troughs next week. The resulting areas of low pressure will be drawing a deep fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and delivering badly needed rainfall.
The problem lies in the days before the rain arrives, when strong southerly winds may gust 50 to 60 mph across the Plains and Midwest.
Strong winds, dry conditions, and recently harvested / harvest-ready fields may set the stage for areas of blowing dust, and widespread areas of critical fire weather conditions.
Curious and concerned about how this will all shake out.
Forecast max wind gusts through Wednesday next week (GFS):
Current 10 CM soil moisture percent of normal:
