Confidence is increasing in a high-impact, disruptive winter storm impacting portions of the Plains, Ohio Valley, and Midwest late this weekend into early next week.
Heavy snow (6" to 12") is predicted to fall across portions of northeast Kansas, northern Missouri, central and southern Illinois and Indiana, into southern Ohio and West Virginia with several inches of snow surrounding this corridor. Closer to the track of the surface low, freezing rain accumulation may stress trees and power grids from the Ozarks into the Ohio River Valley.
A corridor of strong winds gusting ~ 40-50 MPH north and west of the surface low may exacerbate the above issues with corridors of blowing snow and reduced visibility in the heavy snow zone and an increased probability of tree damage and power outages in the potential ice storm zone.
The storm system will organize over the Plains early Sunday morning with an area of low pressure emerging near Oklahoma City at 6 AM. By Monday morning, the area of low pressure should be somewhere near the Ohio/Kentucky border.
Disruptions from heavy falling snow and freezing rain will be highest on Sunday and Sunday night, but lingering impacts from blowing snow and potential tree damage and power outages will last into Monday or later in some areas.
I would plan on significant winter storm conditions disrupting travel and daily life from Kansas City to St. Louis to Indianapolis to Cincinnati late this weekend into early next week.
