My post from several days ago calling for a potential "regional winter weather disaster" ruffled a few feathers on social media, generally from folks with little context for winter weather infrastructure in the Deep South. As forecasts roll closer I don't feel any different.
I strongly believe we'll see areas of disastrous consequences from the ongoing Arctic outbreak and incoming wintry precipitation.
Winter Storm Warnings are now in effect along the Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida. Metropolitan areas in the Deep South like Houston, New Orleans, Mobile, and Pensacola all find themselves in Winter Storm Warnings with heavy snow and/or ice accumulations expected Monday night into Tuesday.
NOAA Hazards Map as of 7 AM CT Mon Jan 20:
Rather than a big, wound up area of low pressure sweeping through the South, we'll see a subtle disturbance running along the stalled polar front in the Gulf of Mexico, bringing a broad area of precipitation through the region. A corridor of accumulating snow is expected from east Texas into Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and near the Florida/Georgia line. Additionally, pockets of freezing rain and ice accumulations are possible, especially in east Texas and again near the Florida/Georgia line. I'm actually quite concerned about the potential impacts of significant ice accumulations in the dense tree canopies of southern Georgia and northern Florida - this is one area where power outages may be more common. Temperatures will continue to run near or below freezing through the end of the week in these areas.
Folks continue to scoff at the gravity of a few inches of snow, ice accumulations, and several days of record cold temperatures in the Deep South without having any context for the infrastructure regionally.
For example - there are no snow plows in Louisiana. None. Their approach when it (rarely) snows is to just let it sit, and have everyone stay home. Building codes and construction regionally aren't intended to withstand long-duration periods of sub-freezing temperatures which leads to busted pipes and strained power grids. This has happened before in recent Arctic outbreaks, and is likely to happen again this week.
Folks were sharing internet tutorials on how to make a space heater out of tea candles and clay pots in Texas during a recent cold snap just a few years ago.
Sounds like a wintry delight!
Yes, there are colder temperatures across the CONUS this week than in the Deep South, and yes there are regions that will see orders of magnitude more snow than will fall in the Deep South this week. That being said, a weather disaster is more than the weather elements alone, it is the sum of the weather elements plus the ability for the region to endure them.
Hopefully negative impacts are kept to a minimum and folks in the Deep South can enjoy a rare opportunity to play in the snow at home. The weather pattern looks to moderate some with temperatures bouncing back to late-January normals across the region by next weekend, Jan 25-26.