The next three days certainly won't be doing anything to dispel my firm belief (and fear) that critical fire weather days will greatly outnumber severe thunderstorm risk days across the Southern High Plains west of I-35 across portions of New Mexico and west Texas.
A deep upper level low is expected to sink into the southwest U.S. mid-week bringing with it the chance for several rounds of showers/storms/isolated severe weather in the Central Plains mid-week before shifting into the Southern U.S. late-week.
Unfortunately, increasingly dry portions of the Southern High Plains are rain-shadowed by this system and will endure an extended period of hot, dry, and windy conditions that will drive fire weather risks into the critical range through Thursday.
Over one million acres of the Texas Panhandle have already burned in March 2024, and that number is likely to continue to increase.
